Updated through week 6 (Oct 7–10), season-ending injuries since Oct 1 repriced from the Oct 12 report (earlier losses are already reflected in on-field results): each game's opponent- and venue-adjusted result blended in at a nine-game prior weight; the "Other" column carries everything outside the five preseason terms, including in-season results. Unit grades refreshed Sep 9. In-season results currently use unfiltered (garbage time included) game stats, capped at ±38.
| Rk | Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Off / Def split | Off | Def | Off SR% | Def SR% | Off Expl% | Def Expl% | SRS | Elo | SOS | Tier |
|---|
Model lines from the updated ratings: rating gap on the market-fitted curve plus each stadium's home-field value, none at neutral sites. FCS opponents use one pooled rating. Kickoffs in Eastern time; win probability is the home team's. QB out = line shift for starting quarterbacks ruled out or doubtful (positive favors the home team); season-ending injuries are already inside the ratings.
| Kick | Away | Home | HFA | QB out | Spread | Home win | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 10/13 07:00 PM | Delaware | at | Middle Tennessee | 1 | +1.9 | Middle Tennessee -1 | 53% | |
| Tue 10/13 08:00 PM | Florida International | at | Jacksonville State | 1 | Jacksonville State -7 | 67% | ||
| Wed 10/14 07:30 PM | Kennesaw State | at | Missouri State | 1 | Kennesaw State -1 | 48% | ||
| Wed 10/14 08:00 PM | Western Kentucky | at | Sam Houston | 1 | Western Kentucky -10.5 | 25% | ||
| Thu 10/15 07:30 PM | Georgia Southern | at | Old Dominion | 0.5 | Old Dominion -9.5 | 73% | ||
| Thu 10/15 07:30 PM | East Carolina | at | UAB | 1 | East Carolina -14 | 18% | ||
| Thu 10/15 08:00 PM | Colorado State | at | Texas State | 1 | +2.8 | Texas State -17 | 87% | |
| Fri 10/16 07:30 PM | Memphis | at | Tulane | 1.5 | Memphis -3.5 | 42% | ||
| Fri 10/16 08:00 PM | Washington | at | Purdue | 2 | Washington -12 | 22% | ||
| Fri 10/16 08:00 PM | App State | at | Coastal Carolina | 1 | App State -3.5 | 41% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Ohio State | at | Indiana | 2 | Indiana -0.5 | 52% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Penn State | at | Michigan | 4 | Michigan -10 | 74% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Wisconsin | at | UCLA | 2 | UCLA -5.5 | 63% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Nebraska | at | Oregon | 3.5 | Oregon -17 | 86% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Northwestern | at | Michigan State | 2.5 | -3.4 | Northwestern -15 | 17% | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Utah | at | Colorado | 2.5 | Utah -22.5 | 8% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Ohio | at | Sacramento State | 0.5 | Ohio -13.5 | 20% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Rutgers | at | Maryland | 2 | Maryland -9.5 | 73% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Akron | at | Miami (OH) | 1 | Miami (OH) -4.5 | 62% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Notre Dame | at | BYU | 2 | Notre Dame -11.5 | 23% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Arizona State | at | Texas Tech | 2 | Texas Tech -22 | 92% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Kent State | at | South Florida | 1.5 | South Florida -23.5 | 93% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Toledo | at | Eastern Michigan | 1 | Toledo -13.5 | 19% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Western Michigan | at | Central Michigan | 1 | Western Michigan -5.5 | 36% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | San José State | at | UTEP | 1 | San José State -17 | 14% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | New Mexico | at | Hawai'i | 2 | New Mexico -19 | 11% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Auburn | at | Georgia | 4.25 | Georgia -27 | 96% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Arkansas | at | Vanderbilt | 3 | Vanderbilt -17.5 | 87% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Florida | at | Texas | 4 | Texas -14.5 | 83% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Kentucky | at | Oklahoma | 4 | Oklahoma -16.5 | 86% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Missouri | at | Ole Miss | 2.5 | Ole Miss -8.5 | 70% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Ball State | at | Bowling Green | 1 | Bowling Green -6 | 65% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Virginia | at | SMU | 2 | Virginia -3.5 | 41% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Louisville | at | Syracuse | 2 | Louisville -18 | 13% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Wake Forest | at | California | 2 | -4.5 | Wake Forest -20 | 10% | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Oklahoma State | at | Houston | 2 | Houston -14 | 82% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Kansas | at | Kansas State | 2.5 | +2.7 | Kansas -1 | 48% | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | TCU | at | Baylor | 2.5 | Baylor -7.5 | 69% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Louisiana Tech | at | UL Monroe | 1 | Louisiana Tech -15.5 | 16% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Charleston Southern | at | Clemson | 3.5 | Clemson -43 | 100% | FCS | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Tulsa | at | Rice | 1 | Tulsa -5 | 37% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Navy | at | UTSA | 1 | UTSA -5 | 63% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Pittsburgh | at | Boston College | 2 | Pittsburgh -7 | 33% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Arkansas State | at | Southern Miss | 1 | -3.3 | Arkansas State -6 | 35% | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Troy | at | Louisiana | 1 | Louisiana -8.5 | 70% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Georgia State | at | James Madison | 1 | James Madison -12.5 | 79% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Elon | at | Stanford | 2 | Stanford -35.5 | 99% | FCS | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Cincinnati | at | West Virginia | 2.5 | Cincinnati -7 | 32% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Charlotte | at | Temple | 1.5 | Temple -22 | 92% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Florida State | at | Miami | 2 | Miami -28 | 96% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Georgia Tech | at | Virginia Tech | 3 | Virginia Tech -10 | 74% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Alabama | at | Tennessee | 3.5 | Alabama -7 | 33% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | North Carolina | at | Duke | 2 | Duke -8.5 | 70% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Massachusetts | at | Buffalo | 1 | +6.0 | Buffalo -5 | 62% | |
| Sat 10/17 12:00 AM | Mississippi State | at | LSU | 4 | LSU -11 | 76% | ||
| Sat 10/17 12:00 PM | Florida Atlantic | at | Army | 1 | Army -6 | 65% | ||
| Sat 10/17 01:00 PM | The Citadel | at | Texas A&M | 4.25 | Texas A&M -48.5 | 100% | FCS | |
| Sat 10/17 03:30 PM | UNLV | at | Air Force | 1.5 | UNLV -7 | 32% | ||
| Sat 10/17 03:30 PM | Northern Illinois | at | Wyoming | 2 | Wyoming -12.5 | 79% | ||
| Sat 10/17 06:00 PM | Washington State | at | Oregon State | 2 | Oregon State -9 | 72% | ||
| Sat 10/17 07:00 PM | Nevada | at | North Dakota State | 1 | North Dakota State -24 | 94% | ||
| Sat 10/17 10:30 PM | Fresno State | at | San Diego State | 1.5 | Fresno State -11.5 | 23% |